When advanced stats go wrong…

538 just published a new list of The 53 Best Franchise Players in the NBA. Before we dive in, it’s critical to understand the premise:

Specifically, we’ve projected the next six seasons of wins above replacement (WAR) for all 572 players in our database. Then we added the cumulative WAR totals over six seasons, with a slight tweak to reflect upside potential.

Two things we can’t stress enough: First, these ratings are purely statistical; there’s no manual tweaking involved. And second, focusing on the long term makes a lot of difference. Tim Duncan doesn’t appear in the top 53, but Jusuf Nurkic does.

Scrolling down the list you’ll find Jared Sullinger at 43. Yes, our Jared Sullinger:

With a bevy of crafty post moves, the undersized Sullinger has made an old-school playing style work for him. Although he sometimes struggles to score around the basket, the development of his outside shot keeps the Celtics happy and is one of several reasons CARMELO expects the Celts to have a breakout season. The throwback comp to Lonnie Shelton is dead on, though Sullinger has to do some work to move past where Shelton was at the same age.

Lonnie Shelton? You mean the guy with the 12 ppg, 6 rpg career averages? That equates to “franchise player?”

But wait, it gets better.

538 has Sully ranked higher then Paul George (45) and Andrew Wiggins (46). A guy on the verge of getting traded for a bag of balls is ranked higher than George and Wiggins.

What’s the likelihood Danny Ainge gets Larry Bird or Glen Taylor to bite on a 1-for-1 trade?

Moving on… the next Celtics player on the list is Marcus Smart at 13:

Given how much CARMELO likes Payton, it’s not surprising that it likes Smart also. He fits a broadly similar profile: His shooting just isn’t there yet, but most of his other skills were already league-average or above last season, when he was just 20. The thing about players like these is that they can be superstars if their scoring develops (Smart’s No. 1 comp is James Harden, for instance) but reasonably valuable all-around players even if it doesn’t.

I’m thrilled to see Marcus ranked so high. I’m praying he develops into a franchise player.

But the Celtics had the opportunity to trade Smart for, say, Klay Thompson (31), Andre Drummond (28), Blake Griffin (15) or Jimmy Butler (17), I’d have a real hard time saying no.