Randy Foye, Sr., Villanova,  6’4”, 205

 

Foye is a strong guard that has the ability to absorb contact and keep going.  However, it’s still yet to be seen how well suited he is to be a point guard.  He’s got the dreaded “combo guard” tag on him right now (but who doesn’t at this point).  Foye is probably more suited to be a Mike James type of scorer who maybe picks up some assists.

2. Marcus Williams, Jr, Connecticut, 6,2”, 200

Marcus is more likely to steal your laptop than an errant pass.  Ok, with that obligatory cheap shot out of the way, it’s still a concern when a guy like this has that kind of red flag attached to his name.  The big trend in sports right now is “character guys,” so Danny Ainge will have to really look at that brain wave analysis of his when it comes to Marcus.  On the court, Williams is more of a pure point guard, but he’s prone to turning the ball over.  He did have a great tourney, which really bumped him up on most draft boards.

 

3. Rajon Rondo, Soph, Kentucky, 6’2”, 171

Here’s a guy with all the tools but not quite all of the skill yet.  He’s incredibly fast, he’s a good finisher, and he can play some D.  However, he’s not much of a shooter at all and his decision making has yet to be honed.  In the absolute best case scenario, he’ll add some weight, become a student of the game, and become a Jason Kidd type of pass-first guy who can carry a game without scoring.  That could be years away, though.

 

4. Sergio Rodriguez, Spain, 6’3”, 180

Sergio was impressive in his workout for the Celtics.  Since none of us have seen him, we’ll have to rely on reports and reputation.  His rep is summed up in his nickname the “Spanish Magician.”  Like most Euros, he’s not much of a defender and he’s not the most explosive guy around… but what skills he does have are phenomenal.  He’s said to be a terrific ball handler and passer, but it will probably take him a little while to get into the NBA style of play.

 

5. Dee Brown, Sr., Illinois, 6’0”, 180

Dee was going to make A LOT of money in last year’s draft before he got hurt.  His stock then dropped after his performance this year.  His FG% was WAAAY down (36% this year, down from 50% last year)… which just adds to the concerns about his streaky shooting.  However, he’s still quick… a good sign that he can come back from injury well.  His playmaking sense needs some work, but his natural gifts make him more attractive.  You can’t teach speed.

Brandon Roy, Sr., Washington, 6’5”, 195

JJ Redick got all the hype, but Brandon Roy is the best 2 guard available.  He’s got good size, good ball handling ability, and a quick first step.  He’s more of a mid-range guy, which start to evoke memories of Ron Mercer.  And that leads us into his downside.  Roy, like Mercer, does a lot of things well in college but did nothing amazing.  Once Mercer got to the pros, he had a long career as a decent player.  However, is that what you want with your first pick in the NBA draft?

2. JJ Redick, Sr., Duke, 6’4”, 190

If the draft were held in April, he might have been the number 2 pick behind Adam Morrison (at least if the guys at ESPN were running things).  Redick is a pure jump shooter.  The best comparison we can make is to John Paxson.  Redick’s success in the NBA will probably depend directly on which team he is on.  If he shares the court with a point guard and small forward who are good slashers, he can spot up and drill jumpers all day.  If you ask him to create his own shot, he’ll be in big trouble.

 

3. Ronnie Brewer, Jr., Arkansas, 6’7”, 217

His versatility will make him attractive in the first round.  He can play the 2 or the 3… and some will contend that he can even bring the ball up if needed.  Like Roy, he’ll be able to do a lot of things well, but probably won’t dazzle anyone with any particular aspect of his game.  However, he is a good passer… and a good passing 2/3 man helps if your point guard is more of a scorer.

 

4. Shannon Brown, Jr., Michigan St., 6’3”, 200

Brown is the guy who every year hits the workout circuit and starts climbing the NBA draft boards.  Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.  He’s a touch on the small side, which could have some teams asking him to play some point guard.  Brown is a bit of a combo guy anyway, and his explosiveness has him drawing comparisons to Tony Allen.  And just like Tony, his jumper is a bit of a question mark.  He won’t make his living spotting up.

 

5. Maurice Ager, Sr., Michigan St., 6’4”, 202  

Ager seems to be a guy who will end up driving NBA coaches nuts.  He’s got the skills, but his heart is a question.  We can see this guy coming out, dropping 15-20 points with some great highlights for a few games… and then he’ll have a 20% shooting night and play no D.  If he can play up to his potential and do it consistently, he could be one of this draft’s success stories.

Adam Morrison, Jr., Gonzaga, 6’8”, 205

Morrison was the man… and then he started crying with time on the clock and a chance to pull a miracle out of his shorts in the NCAA Tourney.  That’s pretty much the point where his stock dropped.  But… his skills are good enough where his stock is back up, and he’s appearing at the top of mock drafts again.  Morrison is a tremendous scorer, but he’s slow and he could be a liability on D.  He’s not explosive, but he’s the kind of guy who will get somewhere on the court on a regular basis… and have you wondering how he did it every time.

2. Rudy Gay, Soph., Connecticut, 6’9”, 220

Good luck getting a read on this guy.  At his best, he’s a freak with the ability to be an NBA star for quite some time.  At his worst, he’ll be the subject of a very long SportsCenter “Where Are They Now” piece highlighting how some wrong choices can kill your career.  We can just as easily envision the headlines “Rudy Gay, 8-Time All Star”… and “Rudy Gay, 8 time Italian League MVP”.  At 6’9”, 220… he’s got the NBA body for a 3 man, we know he’s got the NBA skills, but does he have an NBA mind?

 

3. Rodney Carney, Sr., Memphis, 6’7”, 205

The Conf USA Player of the Year is considered to be the best athlete in this draft.  He might end up being more of a 2 guard when it’s all said and done… if he can find a consistent jumper.  The knock on him, however, is that he’s got one bad game for every good game.  You’ll see Carney on ESPN a lot throwing down highlight dunks… but it’s possible that’s all you’ll see from him for a while.

 

4. Shawne Williams, Jr., Memphis, 6’9”, 225

Carney’s teammate is a very versatile guy, which could very well keep him around for a while.  He’s a better 1-on-1 guy than Carney, but he’s nowhere near as athletic and his jumper isn’t ready for the NBA.  He’s got a good head for the game though, which could make up for his shortcomings.

 

5. Marcus Vinicius, Brazil, 6’9”, 235

He could very well be as good offensively as anyone in this draft.  He still might have to learn a thing or 10 on the defensive end of the court.  Again, this is a guy coming out of Brazil, so we’re basing this on reports and reputation.  Marcus is supposedly able to do it all offensively… but he’s a turnstile on D.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Soph., Texas, 6’10”, 240

LaMarcus, it’s your turn on top of the “which power forward is the best available” list.  He’s certainly big enough to play both the 4 and the 5 spots in the NBA.  In fact, in today’s NBA, he’s probably not far away from being a legitimate big man.  It’s hard to tell what the Raptors are thinking… and don’t look to any mock drafts for help, because they’re all over the place… but Aldridge seems to be a legit pick at #1.

2. Andrea Bargnani, Italy, 7’0”, 225

If he gets taken first, he should thank Dirk Nowitski for having such an awesome post season.  Scouts are calling this guy the next Dirk, because he’s 6-11 but he patrols the perimeter.  Just like Dirk, he’s on the soft side on D, and he’s not a big back-to-the-basket kind of guy.  He’s pretty much exactly what you’d expect out a European player… a little soft, a hell of a shooter, slacking on D.  But if he’s anywhere near Dirk’s ability on offense… he’s worth the roll of the dice.

 

3. Tyrus Thomas, Fr., LSU, 6’9”, 220

Ty pushed himself into this discussion simply because he made a name for himself in the NCAA Tourney.  The bottom line here, though, is this:  Are you willing to make a 6’9”, 220 pound PF your number one pick?  The Celtics already have a guy that size, Ryan Gomes, and he was a 2^nd rounder.  I know, Ty Thomas is much more explosive… but he’s also coming out after his freshman year.  It’s very possible he can turn out to be great, but he’s more of a project than most people would like to admit.

 

4. Shelden Williams, Sr., Duke, 6’9”, 250

Shelden is another undersized guy who is going to try to make the leap into the NBA.  In fact, you could interchange Thomas and Williams on this list because each has what the other doesn’t.  Shelden is stronger, and he’s coming out after his senior year… which makes him better suited to succeed.  Thomas is quicker and has more upside… which allows the NBA sized egos making these picks to think they could get more out of him.

 

5. Cedric Simmons, Soph., NC State, 6’9”, 225

This kid looks like someone who’ll spend 10 years in the NBA as a 10 minute a game shot-blocker.  Of course, he could progress further than we expect and turn into a defensive/rebounding specialist.  Don’t expect too much from this kid offensively… at least not early in his career… but he might be able to get by crashing the boards and blocking shots until the rest of his game comes along.

Patrick O’Bryant, Soph., Bradley, 7’0”, 250

 

As with just about every young big man entering the League, O’Bryant is a project.  He is coming out of school in time to cash in on a very good NCAA Tournament performance, but he’s not ready for the NBA quite yet.  Like Cedrick Simmons, he could get by on his rebounding and shot blocking… but he needs work.  Actually, what he needs is the same type of weight lifting program Kendrick Perkins has been on.

2. Tiago Splitter, Brazil, 6’11”, 235

Every draft needs an enigma, and Splitter’s our guy this year.  Some mock drafts have him as a lottery pick, some have him going late 1^st round, and some have him going late in the 2^nd round.  That’s why we hate mock drafts and still refuse to do one.  Adding to the confusion, we’re still not sure where to list Splitter.  Is he a center?  Is he a power forward?  Is he a small forward?  He’s just about 7 feet… which draw the comparisons again to… Dirk Nowitski.  My question to all these foreign teams is, do you guys play ANY post offense?  All these 6-11 guys are wing men.  One more thing: he’s playing in a Spanish league right now… so he won’t be able to come in for any private workouts… so he’ll be drafted on Euro League scouting alone.  Are we looking at another Darko here?

 

3. Saer Sene, Senegal, 7’0”, 235

I’m going to have to avoid lightning strikes when I say this… but this guy is starting to sound like the next Hakeem Olajuwon.  Now, before you roll your eyes… he’s a guy out of Africa who only recently started playing the game but seems to be mastering it amazingly well and very quickly.  He’s 7 feet tall but he’s got a big wing span and he’s got a knack for rebounding and blocking shots.  I’m not saying this guy is next Olajuwon… I’m just saying I’ve heard the beginning to this story before… and I’m intrigued by it.

 

4. Aaron Gray, Jr., Pittsburgh, 7’0”, 270

He might be the only guy in this draft that has one true position and that’s it.  At 7 feet, 270… he’s a center and that’s it.  He’s going to be a hard worker who hits the boards hard.  But where he was able to muscle people around in college, it’s going to be much harder for him to do in the NBA.  His coordination and quickness need a lot of work… so while the rest of his team is practicing, he’ll be better suited doing agility drills off in the corner.

 

5. Kevin Pittsnogle, Sr., West Virginia, 6’11”, 255

Pittsnogle is a Brad Miller type of player who is more comfortable 15 feet from the hoop.  But where Miller can crash the boards and bang down low, Pittsnogle is not exactly a force closer to the basket.  He has a future because he’s big and he can shoot well… and he has the desire to improve.  However, his future might be more as a 4 man who will draw players away from the middle than as a back to the basket center.  In the end, he might end up being more Raef LaFrentz than Brad Miller.